Candlesticks Hint That Crude Oil Prices Are On The way in which Down
To the oil-producing nations, it must have appeared like without end that Crude Oil costs slid down, down, and down some more after the outstanding Highs of last Summer time. To those nations whose budgets were based on the assumption of Crude costs at $85 or $a hundred per barrel, assumptions had been thrown askew as costs descended under those levels and then down so far as $forty four per barrel. Saudi Arabia could not have cared terribly much, since amongst all producing nations it is the low-cost producer at – we have now heard – only $three per barrel. However to these international locations which harbor special agendas, reminiscent of Iran and Venezuela, $forty four oil bit arduous.
Now, with oil at about $68 per barrel, Mr. Chavez has a freer hand in subsidizing his personal favored client states reminiscent of Cuba and Honduras. He could not be aware of it, however that little get together goes to come to an finish.
Surely there can be little doubt that the huge decline in Crude costs since final Summer season was an impulsive move, a demonstration of a serious trend in motion. What we have seen since the underside in March 2009 is an upward a-b-c correction of that underlying pattern. That correction has now run its course. It is in the character of all upward corrections that, when they’re executed, costs revert to levels lower than those which obtained earlier than the correction began. This essentially means that we will see Crude Oil below $forty four per barrel – possibly under $30.
Once again, this will raise havoc with the budgets of a lot of the producing nations, whereas industrial and particular person consumers will be delighted.
In particular, the Candlestick pattern in Crude Oil as we speak lends credence to the proposition that, certainly, the worth of Crude has peaked and is now headed Down again. True, in the future does not a trend make. Even so, we see a tall black worth bar as we speak (a “down” day) which bearishly engulfed the “real physique” worth action of the two preceding days and almost engulfed the day before that. We take this pattern to be bearish. In addition, it seems that Monday’s high was the top of Wave 2 of the primary down-up transfer in a decline. When and if prices now continue to decline below 67.40 – the low of Wave 1 – the die will have been solid and prices should continue to fall thereafter.
If this situation involves cross, we will count on to see a recurrence of price range troubles in Iran, Venezuela, Russia, and Iraq too. Old assumptions shall petroleum equipment technician jobs victoria be put to the test once more, and might be discovered wanting. One can foresee the prospects of civil unrest; and one wonders what impact could also be felt by the massively repressive regime in Iran which, unfortunately, once more holds its own people in thrall, now to a better extent than ever.
Whichever approach Crude Oil prices could go from here, we know this much: their probably course can be foretold by the Candlestick patterns in the worth charts.
Author Box William Kurtz has 1 articles online
The writer owns CandleWave, LLC which publishes an Investment E-newsletter and distributes its Action Options three times per week via its CandleWave web site. CandleWave, LLC also operates web sites http://www.candelaabra.com for the sale of its proprietary “Candelaabra” technical analysis system Operating Manual, and publishes day by day Commodity Experiences at http://www.commoditiesjunction.com/
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