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Refining Capability Growth In Nigeria Will ‘Substantially’ Erode Exports

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Nigeria’s projected development in refining capacity over the early 2020s will ‘substantially’ erode the country’s crude oil exports as a consequence of a ‘weak’ new venture pipeline, according to a brand new report from BMI Research.

Whereas the report hailed the projected start up of the 650,000 barrel per day (bpd) Dangote refinery by 2020 and the potential of a second 250,000 bpd facility begin up by 2021, oil and fuel analysts at BMI highlighted that Nigeria may battle to increase its oil production to meet new demand from these facilities, as well as maintain exports, as other international locations have executed.

“Saudi Arabia has efficiently managed this problem, including new capacity in 2013 and 2015, yet sustaining sturdy ranges of exports,” the report stated.

Nigeria nevertheless, has a ‘bleak’ outlook, in keeping with crude oil fractional distillation waste the report.
“The low oil value and uncertainty around the safety, fiscal and regulatory environment has resulted in insufficient…investment decisions to ship lengthy-time period development,” the report stated.

“As a results of the restricted venture pipeline and the growth in home crude demand from refineries, either crude oil exports will fall, or refineries will run at lower utilization charges,” the report added.

BMI analysts mentioned there was even a possibility that each scenarios may happen, crude oil fractional distillation waste with crude oil exports dropping as more home crude is processed at new refineries, and new refineries working at low utilization rates given ‘crude oil export commitments and inconsistent supply’.

“That stated, this can even create alternatives. If the Nigerian authorities is finally able to push through the varied parts of the Petroleum Trade Invoice (PIB), supporting investor confidence in future regulatory and fiscal circumstances, there will likely be an present domestic demand market for the oil,” the report said.