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New Refinery Plan Announced

In accordance with a March presidential decree, a Russian-owned firm, Namref, is planning to construct a US$12bn refining facility at Namibe, a port city in southern Angola.

Evaluation

Namref—whose shareholders are given as the little-known Rail Normal Service (75%) and Fortland Consulting Firm (25%)—plans to link the new plant to the newly rehabilitated railway that runs from the Atlantic coast at Namibe into Angola’s interior in the direction of Zambia. Lusa, a Portuguese information agency, studies that the brand new facility will, at its peak, produce 400,000 barrels/day of refined product, and over its lifespan create 3,000 jobs, of which greater accounting oil and gas production sait than two‑thirds shall be for Angolan nationals.

This announcement about a new refinery is somewhat stunning. It comes simply weeks after the formation of a multi-sectoral commission to reassess the financial and technical viability of an erstwhile planned facility in Soyo, and the initiation of a feasibility study to study the economic and technical implications of Angola refining its crude abroad. Equally, though Namibe—with its Atlantic port, rail access and proximity to Zambia and Namibia—is a very good location for a refinery, so too is Lobito, the place Angola’s state oil company, Sonangol, has been planning such a facility for greater than 6 m diameter pressure vessel automatic welding 15 years. Development had begun on the accounting oil and gas production sait Lobito site, however work was suspended in 2016 for a re‑evaluation of its value and viability.

There is no such thing as a query that Angola wants extra refining capacity. It at present solely has the ageing Refinaria de Luanda, which has a mean annual output of round 50,000 b/d. This satisfies lower than one‑third of home oil consumption, and leaves Angola—Africa’s largest crude producer—reliant on imported merchandise whose prices fluctuate in line with market calls for. Nonetheless, constructing refineries is a excessive-price venture, which requires vital ranges of technical information and environmental safety capability. Securing overseas financing may be the one way Angola, which is currently struggling with low revenue as a result of low oil prices, can construct a second facility. However, it’ll want to accounting oil and gas production sait make sure that a protracted-term plan is put in place to cowl maintenance of such a plant to avoid vital prices being incurred in the future.

Affect on the forecast
The new refinery, if indeed it goes ahead, will take some years to turn into operational, and thus we anticipate the country to stay reliant on imported gasoline for some years. Our forecast subsequently remains unchanged.